Enery
Policy and War in
By Rahul Brown
Analysis of War in Iraq and Geopolitical Strategy
I believe that Bush and co. see
some very direct
strategic
implications for this war around the issue
of oil
that have direct and heavy impacts to the
American
economy. The era of a hydrogen based economy
is about
15 years away (search National Ignition
Facility and power generation
through inertial fusion
reactions)
in a world where the main obstacle won't be
the
technological expertise, but the capital needed to
build
the
technological
infrastructure. Who are the players
poised
to build this new infrastructure? The likes of
Bechtel or Halliburton along with
the family of other
multi-national
energy engineering outfits with which
the Bush
administration has some clearly incestuous
relations.
So what does all this mean for
these huge energy
companies?
The horizon of the obsolescence of their
business
is visible and there isn't a large market for
their
services in the next 15 years as everywhere that
needs a
refinery or reactor pretty much has one.
Given the huge investments needed
to put in this kind
of
equipment and the sometimes 50 year depreciation
schedules
that they are on, it doesn't make business
sense
for the existing customers to upgrade their
equipment
with better technology that makes marginal
improvements
on efficiency (if the world remained as
it has
been). The flip side of this is that it
doesn't
make sense for these engineering companies to
pour
huge bucks into the R&D for improving this class
of
technology when they already know what their next
big
thing will be.
So what does that mean for
strategic focus? You've
got to
keep these companies alive for the next 15
years,
or else no company will have both the money and
expertise
to be able to accelerate our movement away
from oil
and into hydrogen. The transition could
easily
take 30 years if these companies are not
financially
healthy
for the next ten years. That means you give
them
projects that let them make a return on the
investment
they've already sunk into obsolete
technology.
So you put in 'old school' energy
infrastructure
in virgin territory (i.e.
petroleum
in
increase
the efficiency of oil extraction in places
that are
non-virgin (i.e. partially destroy but wholly
take-over
oil infrastructure in a war with
corollary
to this approach is that a friendly,
'pro-western' regime in
post-war
investments in its energy infrastructure for
marginal
improvements to finance rebuilding
(necessitated
by our destruction) and
because
they too know that while their oil may not dry
up in
the next 20 years, their market very well could
dry
up. The same goes Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait,
Venezuela, and
of course Mexico. These
countries
are heavily dependent on oil, so very likely
to see
their
economies
tank in 20 years (except Mexico).
The ancillary effect of this
approach is also
good for
the American economy. Oil companies are
going to
see the cost of a barrel of crude drop
significantly
as the newer 'old school' infrastructure
begins
to go in place. American consumers won't see
the
benefits of this domestically because our gasoline
is
already so heavily subsidized, but the rest of the
world
that pays 3-5 times what we pay for gas will
definitely
get cheaper gas and therefore consume more
gas.
Big bucks for the likes of the Chevron's and
Exxons of the world.
As the rest of the world
(especially
the developing world) begins to choke on
its own
air pollution and traffic congestion, guess
who they
will turn to so that they might transition
out of
an oil based economy? You guessed it: good ole
uncle
Sam, who by then will already have the first
wave of
new energy infrastructure in place and be well
prepared
to deploy it to the rest of the world at
costs
that will be sure to keep them in debt for the
next 100
years.
Its
important to realize that this will be the course
of the
world even after an administration change so
long as
this war has taken place. Destroy and rebuild
energy
infrastructure in
dictate
that OPEC will have to make upgrades to
their
systems because the marginal cost of oil coming
out of
countries.
So now you see how maniacal and
well thought out this
plan
actually is. Having this war with
first
domino
in this
course of world events. It also (quite
evilly)
secures our financial future for the
next 50
years. Yes, not just big business's future,
but Joe
Consumer too. I might also add that if
history
is any guide, it sets the stage for WW3.
Current anti-western sentiment in
Islamic countries
will
increase and swelter into deeper and broader
bases of
fundamentalism as they realize how much we're
ass-raping
them coupled with the fact that they will
have
little to lose in outright war against the west.
This will be the last great
showdown so to speak: the
free
world vs. militant islam.
The chilling reality is that
there are so few
countries
that will be spared in that conflict. China
will
certainly be involved in the fray as they will be
the main
weapons supplier to the fundamentalists.
India will certainly be involved
as Pakistan is not
only
likely to sell nukes to fellow islamic
dictatorships,
but also be emboldened to nuke India in
that
world. You can expect to see a rapid
remilitarization
of Japan (probably before all of
this
happens as short term tighter economies,
aggressive
north Koreans, and the indignant Japanese
themselves
necessitate this change) which will be the
front
lines of attack on China. North Africa and
Indonesia will be involved by via
allegiance to Allah,
necessitating
Australia & New Zealand's involvement.
Sub-Saharan Africa won't be a
front, but will sink
into
tribal and ethnic warfare as most countries are
likely
to lose all semblance of a real gov't and sink
deeper
into warlordism. It seems that only the remote
corners
of South America will be relatively untouched
by the
conflict.
Don't worry,
you and I will either be senior citizens
or dead
by
the time
the world gets to this and, though difficult
to at
the moment,
there will be a few
more opportunities to
short
circuit this chain of world events so that it
doesn't
erupt into total warfare.