“ General War Analysis Number 1 “

 

by S. Jovian Radheshwar for Radheshwar.com

 

March 26, 2003, Huntington Beach, California

 

            The easiest temptation of many liberal commentators, including myself to some degree, during the war in Afghanistan in the fall of 2001 was to compare that conflict to the Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan at the end of the 1970’s. This is an alluring comparison, as it offers some convenient departure from the oft-utilized Vietnam analogy for American military expeditions in the latter half of the 20th century and now in this new century. While many said that Afghanistan would pose similar difficulties for the United States as it had for the Soviets; which indeed decapitated, unwittingly, the latter regime; most analysts at the time sought to compare that conflict instead to Vietnam. Clearly, the early success of the US military there in deposing the Taliban doesn’t totally refute that view, however, it does at least force a reassessment of the political economic lines drawn following that conflict. The American strike and continuing operations in Afghanistan are in my understanding somewhat anomalous militarily and seemingly represent a prolonged mission to locate certain criminals and less a motion towards imperialist rule of that country. Maybe some Americans will get rich, but it doesn’t, and will never compare to the riches that are now officially up for grabs at the door of US destruction of Iraq. Afghanistan, regardless of your view of the United States, or of imperialism, even, is easier to believe as being a necessary engagement, to locate the purported perpetrators of 9/11. This does not apply to Iraq, which is a fundamentally different conflict.

 

            First and foremost, the leadership in the United States does not resemble precisely what they seek to be depicted as in the news media. The administration is totally in favor of US imperialism in the Middle East, and years of control of Iraqi resources prior to relinquishment to an “independent” Iraqi government. This does not fit the mold of the war on terror in the strictest sense of what that war represents, and this war on Iraq remains undeclared by congress and is an executive police action of gigantic proportions. This is Bush’s brainchild (maybe “gangliachild” is more appropriate), and represents his will to make war on Iraq. He cloaks this in the language of vagueness and fear, making what I feel are closeted arguments favoring a type of new white supremacy. This is very similar to another decrepit, nepotistic, sycophantic so-called leader, and his approach to launching a war of aggression on a portrayed security threat. I am referring to Leonid Brezhnev, the Soviet leader that initiated that dead empire’s invasion of Afghanistan in 1979. Indeed, he argued that the religious zealots of Afghanistan’s warring tribes had to be civilized and that “supporting” the incumbent nominally communist government was the right thing to do. The history of that war began, too, with the quick capture of large swaths of unoccupied, uninhabited land by the Soviets, utilizing blitzkrieg tactics to cover ground. Of course, this is mirrored by the US tactics in the current conflict in Iraq.

 

            The US has the benefit of not having to face large amounts of coordinated and well-funded resistance, as there is no CIA and ISI conspiring against their designs on Iraq. However, that does not rule out the possibility that some damage, albeit not likely overwhelming, will be inflicted on American and British forces, as they leave large tracts of urban territory adjacent to the cross country highway unsecured and creeping with Iraqi irregulars as their political pressures force them onwards to Baghdad.  This is an indication that American military tactics now even consider particular units within its own army as totally expendable, as pawns, although my saying so now certainly sounds naïve. I suppose this merely unmasks the contempt for human life endemic to an institution such as the military. The inability of the military to think outside the political aspects of the conflict will only serve to cause American and British military casualties in the theater. Following the anticipated defeat of Saddam, will the US/UK troops return to the bypassed cities, hoping that the now totally stranded elements will surrender? Maybe so, but look for some to take the martyr’s way out.

 

            Reports have emerged in the last few days of possible use by the Iraqis of chemical weapons in the US/UK troops advance to within 50-100 miles of Baghdad, in which case the number of casualties on both sides may climb astronomically. Certainly if the US responds in kind or worse as promised. The reports from the US cable news media, just emerging from round the clock, commercial free coverage for the first four days of the conflict, are overly optimistic, it seems, as the ground troops are increasingly coming under fire and the Iraqis are showing some creativity with regard to Guerrilla war tactics. This does not bode well for the coalition in the impending battle for Baghdad, as we can expect that Saddam and those loyal to him will exploit every chance to fight for their survival and inflict casualties on US forces. The Fox News channel and even CNN in this war have attempted to do a great deal to mislead the people, but I urge everyone reading this to visit any of the websites listed at the bottom of this essay.

 

            This week, we should watch for the initial stages of the conflict for Baghdad. This is indeed already underway, with the US bombing regions surrounding Baghdad being defended by Saddam’s more loyal troops. This concentrated focus has been accompanied by an increase in mistakes, as just hours ago a bomb errantly hit a market in Baghdad, resulting in civilian casualties in the high-teens. Expect to see more civilian casualties this week, with more bombs being dropped in tighter areas. Even if the US takes the capital shortly, the pacification of the remainder of the country remains difficult, and leaving it to the British will not bode well for our final remaining alliance. Anyhow, with the perception and understanding I have of this administration, it makes no sense for me to talk sense to them over here, as they will undoubtedly have heard it from an analyst at the CIA prior and will do precisely the opposite in the mad rush for imperial holdings. Certainly, the US can win with relatively few casualties, however, the continuing use of Guerrilla tactics and the use of suicide tactics by terrorists that are expected leave this misadventure a story not finished as of this week or next, or the one after that.

Please visit the following sites for your own knowledge and entertainment:

Commondreams.org

News.bbc.co.uk

Economist.com

On balance, these various sources should provide a reasonable array of ideological argumentation and thorough analysis for your consumption.